Forest Transitions & External Drivers : looking back and looking forward
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper first examines the history of New England for an effect of urbanization on forests, providing new measures of change over time in spatial concentrations of population and output. Forest area fell during early development then rebounded even as population and output rose. Historical census data support that: (1) spatial concentration of population can increase forest; (2) this can occurs when agriculture declines; and (3) urban industry facilitates concentration. Next we consider what this case and ‘forest transition theory’ (FTT) imply. Much as for ‘environmental Kuznets curves’, despite a set of valid causal linkages very little about forest outcomes can be predicted since those potential links can not uniquely determine a forest’s fate. Neither this case nor FTT yield general predictions that forests shrink and then grow with time. In New England, the return of so much forest might not have occurred without food and timber from other regions. Generalizing this point in light of the global importance of external drivers, we consider more generally what FTT predicts, using the future of the Amazon as one example.
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